Monday, April 7, 2008

PA Race Tightens

Ok, so last time I made predictions they, ah, didn't quite turn out. So without making any predictions, I did want to note that Obama seems to have significantly narrowed Clinton's lead in Pennsylvania. ARG, Insider Advantage, and PPP all have Obama and Clinton with a statistical tie, the others still have significant Clinton margins. The trend lines on the Pollster.com graph are pretty clear though. Every poll has the margin shrinking, just by different amounts. Also, SUSA has been the best poll this cycle, and they're still showing Clinton by 12 (down from 19 in their previous poll). I'll be interested in seeing the next SUSA poll.

Over all it seems that Obama will not catch Clinton, but her gain in pledged delegates will be pretty marginal. Still, the news has been slowly going against Clinton as more and more of the voters and media realize that Clinton has no realistic shot of winning the nomination.

As always, take polls with a grain of salt, and look at the trend lines not the individual poll data.

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