Drop Out?

Apropos of a conversation I had with a friend the other night, I was thinking about Hillary's insistence of sticking with this race despite increasingly long odds for victory.

The argument goes that she has no chance to win (which is pretty true, see here). Therefor, by staying in the race, she does two things: 1) cause Obama to spend money on fighting her instead of fighting McCain, and 2) weakening Obama with negative attacks. I don't buy it. First, while Obama is spending money against Hillary, he wouldn't necessarily be able to spend the same amount whacking McCain around. People donate to campaigns because they want the candidate to win, and they are affraid that their favored candidate might lose. Obama's fundraising has been mighty indeed this cycle, but I seriously doubt he'd be raking in $30M a month if the primary was over. Secondly, how effective are attacks seven full months before voting happens? If you can set the narratives of the playing field to your advantage, they can be effective, but I'm not convinced that large media buys actually gets you there. This goes to the second argument too. Really, is anyone going to remember or care what bad things Hillary said about Obama 7 months from now? In addition, I think attacks will actually help Obama should he get the nomination. The recent attacks that everyone seems to think are so bad are the Wright controversy and the "experience" attacks Hillary has launched. I think that having met these arguments and (presumably) overcome them makes Obama a stronger candidate. In a sense it could well "steal the thunder" of McCain saying "I'm more experienced." Voters may hear that and think "yeah yeah, heard it before."

If there is anything I think IS harmful it's when Hillary attacks Obama by implying that both she AND McCain have experience but he does not. That's guaranteed Youtube material. Well gosh, even HILLARY CLINTON thinks that Obama isn't experienced enough. . . etc.

Also, I think there are some positive effects as well. While the candidates have been spending lots of money on TV ads, the also have been spending vast sums on grass roots organizing. Both Hillary and Obama volunteers are out in force registering new voters and bringing them to the polls. That's money that wouldn't be spent (or wouldn't be spent with such abandon) if the nomination was decided. Also, by still having a "live" contest, it keeps the focus of the free media (news etc) on the Democrats. Their ideas and disagreements are getting more air time than anything McCain does. McCain has been busy flying abroad and going on a "personal history" tour because he needs to try and generate attention, anything to get people to look at him.

Sure some super motivated volunteers may be turned off by negative attacks, or may become so polarized that they will not enthusiastically support the eventual winner, but most people don't fall into that category. At worst, I think it's a wash. As long as Hillary can keep from saying nice things about McCain, I think the upside is significant.