Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Another Split Decision

Well, results from yesterday's primary have now been reported. As expected Clinton won in Kentucky and Obama in Oregon. Interestingly, Kentucky was a really big win, 35%, and it's the more populous state. Even so, she only netted 13 or so delegates (depends on the tallies by congressional district). It doesn't narrow the gap enough.

Indeed, the big take away this morning (at least it was on NPR) seems to be that Obama has won the pledged delegate race. Even if Hillary won an implausible 100% of all remaining pledged delegates, Obama would still have more. I really don't see 2/3 of the pledged delegates willing to rip the party apart by choosing Hillary. It just can't happen. Look for more committments and defections to Obama post haste. At this point, if you haven't committed where your super delegate will go, you obviously are not a diehard Clinton supporter. Add to that Clinton is very unlikely to be President at this point, so your vote won't be rewarded. Short of bribery I don't see any reason for a remaining uncommitted super to support Hillary.

UPDATE: Well, maybe her "next vote wins" proposal would help her.

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