Well, it looks like it's right down to a photo finish on Tuesday. There's been a lot of talk about how Obama has pulled ahead of Hillary in Ohio in the latest Zogby poll. Don't believe it. Zogby has a pretty poor record this primary cycle in general. In all the other polls (full results from pollster.com here) Hillary has a lead between 6 and 12 points. The most likely result is a win for Hillary, probably under 10 points.
Also interesting is Texas, which is now crazy tight. Obama was leading in most major polls at the end of last week, but now the race seems to be dead even. SUSA, Rassmusen, Mason-Dixon and Zogby have Obama very slightly ahead (within MOE), while Insider Advantage and PPP have Hillary up (and by a significant margin too - 5/6 points). Obama has been trending strongly up and Hillary sharply down, but the massive campaigning by both candidates has arrested the movement and basically brought them dead even. Definitely anybody's gain. If Hillary manages wins in both Texas and Ohio, she'll get a considerable boost from the media narrative on that score ("her strategy worked, etc") even if she still lags behind in pleged delegates (which seems almost certain). It will also serve to swing super delagates to her. Even a narrow win in Texas could bring additional party members and reps into her camp on the theory that since she won their state they should support her.
If Obama wins Ohio and Texas, it's a knockout blow. That seems increasingly unlikely though. Looks like a split of Ohio/Texas (with Rhode Island going for Hillary and Vermont going for Obama) and then both sides will have 6 weeks to bombard Pennsylvania natives with political ads.
Photo by Flickr user ▌ÇP▐ used under creative commons license.
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