Tuesday, November 4, 2008

My Predictions

I am feeling really optimistic. Probably too optimistic for my own good. I really think this is going to be one of those "wave" years. Sometimes one party has a lot of momentum going into a general election, and it seems all the undecideds break their way across geographic and income lines.

I think that will happen this year. I think Obama is going to crush McCain, winning Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina and some surprise western states (like, maybe Montana or some such), popular vote: 52-46 (rounding, there's probably a few percent drop off from green/libertarian/write in). I think the Dems will pick up 8 seats in the Senate (AK, NH, MN, VA, NM, OR, NC, and one of GA/MS/KY) and probably 40+ in the house. I'd love to say that I thought the dems would get 9 Senators for a veto proof majority, but probably not (note: counting on Lieberman for a "veto proof majority" probably is a dumb idea anyway).

It's kind of too bad that Maine wasn't more competitive, I thought Allen would give Susan Collins a real run in what is presidentially a solidly Democratic state, but there's always a bit more you could do I guess.

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