Sunday, November 9, 2008

Bad Analysis Watch: The God Gap

I just wanted to point out this and this from Kevin Drum.

The take away here is if you see someone in the paper or on TV telling you that Obama did well because he convinced regular church goers to vote for him DON'T BELIEVE IT. It's just lazy reporting. As Kevin shows, Obama did improve over Kerry's numbers among self-reported regular church goers, but by no more than he improved among everyone! Obama got more votes! If you want to say Obama did particularly well among a group, you need to compare it to his improvement among other groups and the electorate as a whole. Obama did improve among regular church goers, and those votes help, but anyone that says Obama's message to/more effective persuasion of church goers was WHY he did so much better than Kerry is selling you a bill of goods.

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