The Good: Obama, Obama, Obama. Not just a win, but a mandate. Popular vote was 52-46 (I was spot on!), and while the electoral margins have yet to be fully determined, Obama won not just the electoral college, but a majority of states. That's big. When Obama says "I want to do this" people have to pay attention.
The Bad: The senate results are honestly a bit disappointing. The Democrats were going to take the Senate going into last night. That was never seriously in question. I thought that the groundswell would push the close races towards the Democratic candidates. Really it didn't. There are several elections that are going to recounts, but in each the Republican candidate holds a slight edge. In Georgia, Chambliss has a significant lead, but he is JUST short of the 50% needed to avoid a runoff with Democratic challenger Martin (he's short about 5,000 votes). It's likely Chambilss will win a runoff, but Martin will have the advantage of having the full attention and support (and financial support) of President-elect Obama.
Merkley is currently behind Smith in Oregon by about 11,000 votes. All results are not in yet, but with 72% reporting I am honestly surprised that Merkley is that far behind. Obama has a margin over McCain of 150,000! Gordon Smith is far from the most conservative member of the Senate, but it's still kind of surprising that he's been able to pull around 100,000 Obama voters onto his side.
In Alaska, convicted felon Ted Stevens is up by around 3,000 votes over Mark Begich. They're still counting the absentee ballots. The fact that this is still close is kind of strange. Harry Reid has said that Stevens will be subject to ejection by the ethics committee even if he did win.
And in the ultimate heart breaker, Franken is behind by less than a thousand votes to Norm Coleman in Minnesota. Jerk of the day goes to Dean Barkley. Guess who got 15% of the vote? Dean Barkley. Way to go jerkface. By the way, Minnesota, unlike Georgia, does not require an absolute majority for victory. By law Minnesota will have a full recount of all votes. It's so close that they probably won't have certified results for another week or so.
The Ugly: Prop 8 passed in California. That's really disappointing, not just for obvious policy reasons but also because McCain only got about 3.7 million votes in California. 5.3 Million Californians voted to ban gay marriage. So while America is busy patting itself on the back for being so great and inclusive by electing Obama, keep in mind that lots of these open minded folk aren't really interested in equality for everyone just yet.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
The Promised Land
Well, I don't know what will happen now. We've got some difficult days ahead. But it doesn't matter with me now. Because I've been to the mountaintop. And I don't mind. Like anybody, I would like to live a long life. Longevity has its place. But I'm not concerned about that now. I just want to do God's will. And He's allowed me to go up to the mountain. And I've looked over. And I've seen the promised land. I may not get there with you. But I want you to know tonight, that we, as a people, will get to the promised land. And I'm happy, tonight. I'm not worried about anything. I'm not fearing any man. Mine eyes have seen the glory of the coming of the Lord.
Martin Luther King Jr. April 3, 1968, the eve of his assassination. Full text here.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
My Predictions
I am feeling really optimistic. Probably too optimistic for my own good. I really think this is going to be one of those "wave" years. Sometimes one party has a lot of momentum going into a general election, and it seems all the undecideds break their way across geographic and income lines.
I think that will happen this year. I think Obama is going to crush McCain, winning Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina and some surprise western states (like, maybe Montana or some such), popular vote: 52-46 (rounding, there's probably a few percent drop off from green/libertarian/write in). I think the Dems will pick up 8 seats in the Senate (AK, NH, MN, VA, NM, OR, NC, and one of GA/MS/KY) and probably 40+ in the house. I'd love to say that I thought the dems would get 9 Senators for a veto proof majority, but probably not (note: counting on Lieberman for a "veto proof majority" probably is a dumb idea anyway).
It's kind of too bad that Maine wasn't more competitive, I thought Allen would give Susan Collins a real run in what is presidentially a solidly Democratic state, but there's always a bit more you could do I guess.
I think that will happen this year. I think Obama is going to crush McCain, winning Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina and some surprise western states (like, maybe Montana or some such), popular vote: 52-46 (rounding, there's probably a few percent drop off from green/libertarian/write in). I think the Dems will pick up 8 seats in the Senate (AK, NH, MN, VA, NM, OR, NC, and one of GA/MS/KY) and probably 40+ in the house. I'd love to say that I thought the dems would get 9 Senators for a veto proof majority, but probably not (note: counting on Lieberman for a "veto proof majority" probably is a dumb idea anyway).
It's kind of too bad that Maine wasn't more competitive, I thought Allen would give Susan Collins a real run in what is presidentially a solidly Democratic state, but there's always a bit more you could do I guess.
Richard Pryor As The First Black President
Voted. Book it. Done.
Now we begin with the waiting...
Poll closing times can be found here. Hopefully the race will be more or less over by about 8/8:30.
Indiana and Kentucky close at 6:00 (some of each state is in Central Time, but significant portions of each are in the Eastern Time Zone. Florida and Virginia close at 7:00, and Ohio closes a half hour later at 7:30. All three lean Obama but are expected to be close, so they may not be called for a few hours, but if one of those three breaks for Obama, that's almost certainly game over. Note that Pennsylvania will be closing at 8:00, and that's McCain's only (slim) hope to pick up a Kerry state.
UPDATE: As for my personal voting experience, it was pretty unremarkable. About a 20 minute wait. Not too bad. There were 8 election districts in my polling station (they divide voters up based on address, because of certain local elections, mostly civil court judges, there actually were different ballots depending where you lived). Only one election district had a line significantly longer than mine. People in the 39th probably had to wait 45 minutes at least.
Try not to get too nervous -
Poll closing times can be found here. Hopefully the race will be more or less over by about 8/8:30.
Indiana and Kentucky close at 6:00 (some of each state is in Central Time, but significant portions of each are in the Eastern Time Zone. Florida and Virginia close at 7:00, and Ohio closes a half hour later at 7:30. All three lean Obama but are expected to be close, so they may not be called for a few hours, but if one of those three breaks for Obama, that's almost certainly game over. Note that Pennsylvania will be closing at 8:00, and that's McCain's only (slim) hope to pick up a Kerry state.
UPDATE: As for my personal voting experience, it was pretty unremarkable. About a 20 minute wait. Not too bad. There were 8 election districts in my polling station (they divide voters up based on address, because of certain local elections, mostly civil court judges, there actually were different ballots depending where you lived). Only one election district had a line significantly longer than mine. People in the 39th probably had to wait 45 minutes at least.
Try not to get too nervous -
Monday, November 3, 2008
Public Service Announcement
The following states ban liquor sales on election day:
At Package stores, bars, and restaurants:
Kentucky
Indiana
South Carolina
At Package stores only:
Utah
West Virginia
All sales, local exceptions allowed:
Alaska
Massachusetts
More interesting is the claim that the "restriction is a relic of the Prohibition era when saloons sometimes served as polling stations." Sounds fascinating but I'd like to see more evidence of that.
At Package stores, bars, and restaurants:
Kentucky
Indiana
South Carolina
At Package stores only:
Utah
West Virginia
All sales, local exceptions allowed:
Alaska
Massachusetts
More interesting is the claim that the "restriction is a relic of the Prohibition era when saloons sometimes served as polling stations." Sounds fascinating but I'd like to see more evidence of that.
So Sad
One day before the election, Obama's Grandmother has died. She came so close to seeing her grandson become president.
Obama did the absolutely correct thing by taking time out of his campaign to see her. No matter how much he achieves as president, that is time he couldn't have gotten back.
My thoughts go out to his family.
UPDATE: Check it out! Madelyn Dunham's vote will count! She was able to cast a vote for her grandson for president (well, assuming she didn't vote for McCain).
Obama did the absolutely correct thing by taking time out of his campaign to see her. No matter how much he achieves as president, that is time he couldn't have gotten back.
My thoughts go out to his family.
UPDATE: Check it out! Madelyn Dunham's vote will count! She was able to cast a vote for her grandson for president (well, assuming she didn't vote for McCain).
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